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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.