A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."